Considering the Russian-Ukrainian war through the prism of a geopolitical approach, it is worth turning to history, namely to the period after the Second World War, which resulted in the formation of a bipolar international system. Its main features were: the presence of two main poles of influence (two superpowers) – the USA and the USSR, which fought among themselves for world hegemony; ideological confrontation between communism and liberalism; conditional parity; relative stability, which, however, did not exclude the appearance of certain conflicts in which the superpowers competed, trying to strengthen their influence (Vietnam War, Korean War, Afghanistan War, etc.).
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the actual destruction of the bipolar system, the international system transformed into a monopolar one, as only one superpower remained on the international arena – the USA. However, over the following decades, the situation on the international arena began to change. The USA was gradually losing its global leadership. This was largely facilitated by the rather liberal and weak foreign policy of certain American presidents (I mean, first of all, B. Clinton and B. Obama), who tried to cooperate with their former enemy – Russia, helping it recover after the dissolution of the USSR and accumulate sufficient potential to challenge its former patron. And D. Trump’s presidency brought additional chaos to the system of international relations due to his extremely inconsistent and fragmented foreign policy.
This situation, by the way, became one of the main causes of the Russian-Ukrainian war, because it broke out precisely as a result of the transformation of the international system that the Russian dictator Putin (who, let me remind you, repeatedly stated that the dissolution of the USSR was the main geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century) decided to restore the bipolar system and to challenge the USA. Having launched armed aggression against Ukraine in 2014, and later, on February 24, 2022, carrying out a full-scale invasion of its territory, Putin sought to revive the former greatness of Russia and turn it into a superpower that, together with the United States, will share global influence on the planet.
Considering the nature of the hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, it can be affirmed that the Russian dictator has not achieved his strategic goals, and his chances of doing so in the near future are minimal. At the same time, if we look at the Russian-Ukrainian war through the prism of the geopolitical paradigm, the situation for the international community is not very optimistic. The fact is that Russian aggression against Ukraine is an attempt at a global redistribution of forces on the planet, an attempt to take advantage of the weakening of the United States in order to expand its influence on the world stage. And Russia’s failures on the territory of Ukraine are by no means a guarantee that everything will stop here.
If someone loses global influence, there will always be someone who will definitely want to take advantage of it. And Russia’s attempt, I’m deeply convinced, is only the first of many attempts to redistribute global leadership.
A famous American political scientist Samuel Huntington put forward the theory of the «clash of civilizations», in which he predicted that the future conflicts will be between the main civilizations of the planet. Current international practice, in my opinion, has shown a certain transformation of this theory, because the conflictogenicity of the modern world is based on a combination of civilization belonging and the type of political regime. I am talking about the fact that the Russian-Ukrainian war demonstrated the division of the international community into a democratic world and an undemocratic world. The democratic block includes the EU, USA, Canada, Australia, Japan and a number of other democratic countries of the world. And Ukraine is currently fighting to be a part of this democratic camp. The non-democratic camp includes Russia, the People’s Republic of China, the DPRK, Iran, and many other authoritarian countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
So, in fact, in our time on the territory of Ukraine, there is a struggle not only for the survival of our state, its independence, sovereignty, but also for the right to be a part of democratic Europe. Today, the future of humanity is largely being chosen on the battlefield in Ukraine, because the victory or defeat of Russia, which is directly or indirectly supported by non-democratic allies (Belarus, Iran, the DPRK, China, etc.), will mean the dominance or defeat of non-democratic regimes.
Taking into account the transitional state of the world system and the global struggle for the redistribution of influence in the future, in which other important international actors besides Russia – China and the Muslim world – began to join directly or indirectly, we can assume that the Russian-Ukrainian war is only the first, but not the last arena for the confrontation of global players. And although the further actions of these global players will largely depend on the results of the Russian-Ukrainian war, we can confidently predict that the situation in the context of global confrontation and transformation of the international system will not end here, and we will see many more arenas of confrontation in the future. By the way, Israel’s war against Hamas became one of them, and demonstrates the confrontation between the West and Muslim civilization.
Therefore, I believe that today humanity is on the threshold (or already in the state) of the Third World War – a war for the global transformation of the international system, a war between the western democratic and eastern non-democratic worlds. And this conflict can turn into a global nuclear war and endanger the destruction of the planet and humanity as a biological species, or into regional conflicts like the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Therefore, I predict that we are only at the start of the global struggle and the level of conflict on the planet will only grow. Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula, the Arctic, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, North and Central Africa, etc. can become potential arenas for such a global confrontation, in addition to the already existing ones – Ukraine and Israel. However, for the first time in human history, the development of future events around the world will largely depend on Ukraine, as well as on how quickly the collective West will realize and respond to the existing global threats from the collective undemocratic East.